Sunday, January 20, 2008
Well its that time of the year when all analysts are duty bound to give their Year End Sensex and Nifty targets to all the business news channel. Its worth watching these analysts speak on TV just for the entertainment value it offers. While some believe that there would be a major impact on Indian markets in the 'Short Term' , but in the 'Long Term' the 'India Growth Story is intact'.
Some argue that emerging economies like India have 'Decoupled' from the global economies,while others believe that it can never happen. Coincidentally the number of analysts in favour of the so called 'decoupling' increase exponentially when the markets are rising, while this same number decreasing exponentiallywhen the markets are falling.
Unfortunately, it is the retail investor, the guys who invest small amounts, which are a big chunk of their savings,who follow this advice. While the market commentator does an about turn and has new specious arguments for the current move in the market, it is the small investor who gets hurt.
The hurt remains for a long time, till the same investor invests again in panic, on the next market upmove,alas to get stuck in a hyped up 'Momentum Stock' at a higher price.
Undoubtedly, people have made money in the past 4 years, but markets being markets always move in unpredictable fashion.
Unfortunately I do not have a target for 2008, but all I know is that we are in a similar situation as we were in 2000 and 1992. The survivors of those crashes will know what I am talking about.
Targets anyone??
The purpose of the blog is to pen my random thoughts, on Financial Markets in general and Stock Markets in particular.